In recent years, the question “Will Vingroup become another Evergrande?” has attracted growing attention, especially as Vingroup aggressively expands into electric vehicles while taking on significant debt. To gain a balanced perspective, let’s compare the two groups across several key criteria.
1. Debt Scale
- Evergrande (China): Over USD 300 billion – the largest in global real estate history.
- Vingroup (Vietnam): Over USD 20 billion, including VinFast and bonds.
While Vingroup’s debt is much smaller, it still represents a substantial burden amid tightening global financial conditions.
2. Main Revenue Sources
- Evergrande relied on 90% of revenue from real estate, making it highly vulnerable when the property market froze.
- Vingroup has a more diversified structure: real estate (Vinhomes) and electric vehicles (VinFast). VinFast has sold cars both domestically and overseas, though it continues to record heavy losses.
3. Electric Vehicles
- Evergrande Auto was largely a failure, with almost no commercial products.
- VinFast successfully listed on Nasdaq, but still faces significant financial and market challenges.
4. Projects & Cash Flow
- Evergrande left numerous unfinished projects, unable to deliver to buyers.
- Vinhomes continues to hand over projects, generating stable cash flow.
5. Government & Social Ties
- Evergrande was heavily restricted by China’s “three red lines” policy, leaving little room to maneuver.
- Vingroup maintains strong social and political ties, widely regarded as Vietnam’s leading private conglomerate. This provides a potential safety net if difficulties arise.
6. International Credit Ratings
- Evergrande defaulted and was unable to repay its debt.
- Vingroup has been downgraded by Moody’s and Fitch to speculative grade, reflecting financial pressures but not a complete collapse.
7. Social Impact
- Evergrande’s collapse triggered China’s broader property crisis.
- For Vingroup, if difficulties emerge, it is likely to receive government support to prevent an “Evergrande effect” in Vietnam.
Evergrande has become a symbol of reckless expansion and weak corporate governance. Vingroup, meanwhile, still faces financial risks (particularly in VinFast and bonds), but it also has tangible products, ongoing cash flow from Vinhomes, and strong social-political backing.
In short, Vingroup is not Evergrande 2.0 – but it is walking a tightrope.